The multiplayer shooter market is brutal right now. Publishers keep trying to launch the next long-term online hit, but the reality is that most of these games donβt last very long.
Two of the most talked about failures recently were Concord and Highguard. Both had decent funding behind them and both aimed to carve out a place in the live-service space.
Neither managed to keep players around.
Now attention is shifting toward Marathon, the upcoming extraction shooter from Bungie. Early tests pulled in a large number of curious players, but that doesnβt guarantee long-term success.
In todayβs multiplayer landscape, getting players to try your game is the easy part. Getting them to stay is where things become difficult.
The Collapse of Concord
When Concord launched it was meant to be a major part of Sony Interactive Entertainmentβs live-service strategy. The idea was simple: create a new multiplayer franchise that players would keep returning to for years.
Instead the game struggled almost immediately.
Player numbers on Steam were far lower than expected for a new AAA multiplayer shooter. Within days the population had already started to shrink.
- Estimated 25,000 total units sold
- Roughly 10,000 sales on Steam
- Peak Steam player count below 700
- Fewer than 200 concurrent players after the first week
Those numbers simply arenβt sustainable for a live-service game. Online titles rely on large player bases for matchmaking, updates, and long-term support.
Several issues hurt Concord. The $40 price tag was a tough sell when many of its competitors are free-to-play, and the gameplay didnβt do enough to separate itself from established shooters like Overwatch 2 or Valorant.
Within weeks, the game had effectively vanished from the multiplayer conversation.
Highguard and the Retention Problem
Highguard had a slightly different story. Unlike Concord, it actually launched with a fairly strong player surge.
Early reports suggested the game reached around 80,000 concurrent players during its initial launch window. For a moment, it looked like the game might find its audience.
But launch numbers donβt tell the full story.
Within days the player population started falling sharply. Thatβs a common problem in the live-service world β curiosity brings players in, but if the gameplay loop doesnβt hook them, they move on quickly.
Once a multiplayer population drops below a certain point, the experience starts to suffer. Matchmaking takes longer, games feel less competitive, and players drift away even faster.
Early Interest in Marathon
This is where Marathon becomes interesting.
The game recently ran large test events to give players a first look at Bungieβs new extraction shooter. Curiosity alone was enough to generate some big numbers.
- Peak Steam players around 143,000 during testing
- Estimated 250,000 to 300,000 players across platforms
- Player numbers dropping roughly 50% within a few days
That initial surge shows thereβs plenty of interest in what Bungie is building. But the drop-off also highlights the challenge every new multiplayer game faces.
Players will try something new, but convincing them to stay is a completely different battle.
Why the Market is So Difficult
One of the biggest problems for new shooters is simple: the market is already crowded.
Games like Fortnite, Apex Legends, Counter-Strike 2, and Call of Duty: Warzone already dominate the space. These games receive constant updates and have communities that have been growing for years.
For a new title to break through, it needs something that feels genuinely different.
Extraction shooters also appeal to a more specific audience. Games like Escape from Tarkov proved the concept can work, but the high-risk gameplay isnβt for everyone.
Why Marathon Could Still Work
Despite the comparisons to Concord and Highguard, there are still reasons to believe Marathon might succeed.
The biggest advantage is the developer behind it.
Bungie has spent years running Destiny 2, which means the studio understands how difficult it is to maintain a live-service game long term.
The early testing numbers also show there is real curiosity around the project. Pulling more than 140,000 concurrent players on Steam during testing is far from a weak showing.
If Bungie can turn that early curiosity into a strong gameplay loop, the game still has a real chance of carving out a place in the market.
The Real Test
At the end of the day, the success of Marathon will depend on one thing: retention.
A live-service shooter doesnβt just need a strong launch weekend. It needs players who keep coming back week after week.
If Marathon can maintain a healthy player base after release, it could grow into a long-term multiplayer platform.
If it canβt, then it risks becoming another example of just how difficult the live-service market has become.
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